As fifth-ranked Ohio State keeps rolling, speculation has grown about the possibility of the Buckeyes getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday.
That looks unlikely, but Ohio State has a legitimate shot at it. Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse look to be locks as No. 1 seeds, and Duke is the other projected No. 1 seed.
If Duke loses in the ACC Tournament, particularly if it loses early, the door will open. West Virginia would have dibs on that fourth No. 1, but the Mountaineers would have to get through the Big East gantlet. Kansas State's unseemly home loss to Iowa State in the regular-season finale dooms the Wildcats' hopes of a top seed. Robbie Hummel's injury precludes the possibility of Purdue getting one. So if the Buckeyes dominate in the Big Ten tournament, the discussion of whether they should be a No. 1 seed could be a lively one for the selection committee.
As for the bottom of the at-large bracket, it has started to sort itself out. A few teams, such as Notre Dame, Texas-El Paso and Memphis, have played themselves in, while many more have played themselves out. Committee members' task by Sunday will not be deciding which teams to exclude as much as which teams they can include while holding their noses.
As for Ohio teams, Cincinnati is toast as an at-large candidate. Dayton's losses at Richmond and at home to St. Louis mean that the Flyers need to beat Xavier and then probably Richmond in the Atlantic 10 tournament to get on the right side of the bubble. Dayton has the talent to make a run, but its problems away from UD Arena make that a long shot.
If Kent State doesn't win the MAC, the Flashes will warrant at-large consideration, although they're probably on the wrong side of the line.
Automatic qualifiers (9):
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State (15)
Big South: Winthrop (15)
Colonial: Old Dominion (12)
Ivy: Cornell (11)
Metro Atlantic: Siena (13)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (7)
Ohio Valley: Murray State (13)
Southern: Wofford (14)
West Coast (1): St. Mary's (11)
No-brainers (26):
ACC (2): Duke (1), Maryland (6)
Atlantic 10 (3): Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)
Big 12 (5): Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (3), Texas A&M (5), Texas (7)
Big East (5): Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (5)
Big Ten (4): Purdue (3), Ohio State (2), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (4)
Horizon (1): Butler (5)
Mountain West (2): New Mexico (3), BYU (6)
SEC (3): Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (5)
West Coast (1): Gonzaga (6)
Looking solid (10):
ACC: Clemson (8), Wake Forest (9), Florida State (8)
Big 12 (2): Missouri (8), Oklahoma State (9)
Big East (2): Louisville (8), Marquette (9)
Conference USA (1): Texas El-Paso (9)
Mountain West (1): UNLV (10)
Pac-10 (1): California (7)
Barely in (8)
ACC (2): Georgia Tech (11), Virginia Tech (11)
Big East (1): Notre Dame (10)
Conference USA: Memphis (13)
Mountain West (1): San Diego State (12)
Pac-10: Arizona State (12), Washington (12)
SEC (1): Florida (10)
Barely out
A-10: Dayton, Rhode Island, Charlotte, St. Louis
Big East: Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida
Big Ten: Illinois, Minnesota
Conference USA: Alabama-Birmingham
SEC: Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Projected automaticqualifiers from one-bid leagues (12)
America East: Vermont (16)*
Big Sky: Weber State (14)
Big West: UC Santa Barbara (15)
MAC: Kent State (13)
MEAC: Morgan State (16)
Northeast: Quinnipiac (16)
Patriot: Lehigh (16)
Southland: Sam Houston State (14)
SWAC: Jackson State (16)*
Summit: Oakland (14)
Sun Belt: North Texas (15)
WAC: Utah State (10)
*Play-in opponents
Here's the field by seed:
1: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke
2: West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State, Purdue
3. Villanova, New Mexico, Baylor, Pittsburgh
4. Michigan State, Wisconsin, Temple, Vanderbilt
5. Texas A&M, Butler, Georgetown, Tennessee
6. Xavier, Gonzaga, Brigham Young, Maryland
7. Texas, Northern Iowa, Richmond, California
8. Clemson, Florida State, Missouri, Louisville
9. Wake Forest, Texas-El Paso, Marquette, Oklahoma State
10: Notre Dame, Florida, UNLV, Utah State
11: St. Mary's, Georgia Tech, Cornell, Virginia Tech
12: Old Dominion, Arizona State, Washington, San Diego State
13: Kent State, Murray State, Memphis, Siena
14: Weber State, Wofford, Sam Houston State, Oakland
15: East Tennessee State, Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, North Texas
16: Morgan State, Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Vermont*, Jackson State*
*Play-in teams